Phoenix REALTORS®: Affordability concerns delay start of fall market pickup

by Emily Marek

Data from Phoenix REALTORS®' latest Local Market Update for Maricopa County.

Despite more year-to-date sales so far in 2026 than in 2025, pending and closed home sales and new listings all declined annually in Maricopa County in September, according to the latest data from Phoenix REALTORS®.

Closed home sales declined 5.3% year over year, with buyers purchasing 3,702 properties during the month, down from 3,908 a year prior. Year-to-date, however, home sales were up from 2025 volumes, with 37,600 sales so far in 2026 compared to 36,457 during the same time frame last year.

Pending listings plummeted 39.3%, though, indicating slower sales in the coming months. Buyers contracted on 2,241 properties in September, up from 3,694 a year ago.

Meanwhile, new listings decreased 1.2% year over year as sellers added 5,502 properties to the market, down from 5,568 in September 2025. New listings are also down 2.1% on a year-to-date basis.

“September often marks the start of increased fall activity, but this year people are navigating more affordability pressure and rate uncertainty,” Sammy Glassman, president of Phoenix REALTORS®, said in a press release. “Buyers and sellers are still active, but when rates keep moving, it can cause people to pause before making a major financial decision.”

The county’s median sales price dipped 2% to $500,000, although the average increased 1.2% to $686,802, indicating steadier activity on the luxury end of the market. The typical seller received 98.1% of their asking price, up just 0.1% year over year.

Given home prices and mortgage rates, the affordability index dropped annually from 74 to 72, meaning the median household income currently covers 72% of the needed funds for a median-priced home.

“Affordability today is often more about the monthly payment than the purchase price alone,” Glassman added. “Seller concessions can be a strategic tool for both sides. Buyers may use them to buy down their rate or reduce upfront costs, while sellers can use them to help address affordability concerns and compete more effectively, especially when resale homes are being compared with new construction.”

The area saw a total of 15,422 homes for sale in September, a 6.4% year-over-year increase. Given the rate of sales, Maricopa County had a 3.9-month inventory, up 5.4% from a year ago, when the county had a 3.7-month housing supply.

Phoenix

In Phoenix proper, seller activity ticked up 1.5% annually, with 1,169 new listings added to the market. Pending sales dropped 37.3% though, with 463 listings going under contract.

Closed home sales declined 4.7% year over year in September, with 750 closings during the month. Year-to-date, sales were up 1.4%.

Both Phoenix’s median and average home prices declined: The median fell 3.5% year over year to $485,000, while the average fell 4.4% to $611,110.

Given the rate of sales, the city had a 3.9-month inventory, up 11.4% year over year.

Scottsdale

Market activity remained steady in Scottsdale as new listings and closings increased annually. Sellers added 543 properties to the market, up 2.8% year over year; closings increased 2.2%, as buyers purchased 327 homes. Year-to-date, Scottsdale home sales were up 10.6%.

Pending sales took a 40.2% nosedive, though, with just 192 listings going under contract during the month.

Both Scottsdale’s median and average home prices increased, indicating the strength of the city’s luxury market. The median rose 4.3% year over year to $1.2 million, and the average increased 7.1% to $1,646,506.

The pace of the market equated to a 3.7-month inventory for the city, down 9.8% year over year.

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