Featuring the perspectives of:
Jeff Murtaugh
CEO, Realty Executives
Katrina Barrett
Broker/Owner, Local Luxury
Sean Zimmerman
President, Compass Arizona
How do you think buyer and seller expectations will evolve in 2026 compared to what we’ve seen over the past few years?
Jeff Murtaugh: Buyers’ expectations are the complete opposite of sellers’ expectations. The seller wants higher prices through appreciation, and sellers want lower prices and reduced interest rates. This is a consistent theme throughout my 49-year career.
Katrina Barrett: Buyer and seller expectations are shifting. As inventory increases, buyers feel they have more time and more options, while many sellers are still anchored to higher price expectations despite the growing volume of available homes. This imbalance may correct itself as more local buyers re-enter the market, but right now most of the activity is still driven by out-of-town purchasers.
Sean Zimmerman: Sellers will be more realistic, not desperate. Sellers have been anchored by 2021 highs and are often setting moonshot pricing without property guidance, making many sellers “make me sell” sellers vs. “need to sell.” That’s changing. Pricing has cooled, and sellers now understand that the market is slowing them down and perhaps hurting them long term when they set a moonshot price. Sellers will be firm, many not “needing” to sell. More importantly, they’ll focus on condition, handling repairs and updates proactively to prevent renegotiation later. Sellers are getting more in tune with what improvements actually move the needle and help them stand out in a competitive field.
Buyers will be motivated by certainty, not speculation. A lot of buyers have been sitting on the sidelines waiting for both rates and prices to drop. It’s become clear only one of those is likely to happen. Rates should remain near current levels, and buyers will adapt. They’ll make decisions when a home feels right, when the condition is great and the systems are updated. Luxury buyers will continue to be deliberate and discerning. In the luxury segment, patience is a virtue, not a delay. High-end buyers will keep prioritizing the fundamentals, location, views and quality over “new for the sake of new.” With more inventory returning to the upper end, affluent buyers are expanding their search parameters seeking lot size, location and quality.
What role do you see AI, data analytics and emerging tech playing in how agents serve clients and run their businesses by 2026?
Murtaugh: AI has yet to show how it can help other than writing emails, letters, etc. I do think when perfected it can help in lead generation, but the bottom line is it’s a face-to-face, people business, and I do not think that will ever change. We are dealing with most people’s largest asset, and I do not see anyone dealing with an AI hardware GPU, CPU and software to handle the sale of their largest asset. I can see more AI being used in home lending, but we will still need loan officers.
Barrett: AI is unquestionably a powerful tool for gathering data quickly and communicating information across many sectors. The challenge is that it still relies heavily on published articles, and not all of those sources are accurate. For example, when I recently tried to comp a property, the AI pushed me toward an inflated price per square foot that was higher than the home deserved. Over time, this should improve as AI gains the ability to pull more reliable data directly from platforms like Zillow, based on actual closed sales.
Zimmerman: AI will continue to make inroads in the industry with new tools and technology enabling agents to easily manage their work flow, past client communications and increase client retention. Tools such as Predictive Seller analytics will greatly assist in helping agents retain past clients. Agents will leverage AI to assist them in making better pricing decisions and will use it to assist their sellers in understanding current values and positioning. The agent who leverages AI and uses tools that help them scale will grow more market share even in a flat market. Late 2026 new technology will emerge aiming to replace or reduce the role of an agent in some sub-markets and price points.
What steps will the industry need to take in 2026 to strengthen consumer trust and reinforce the value of Realtor representation?
Murtaugh: I have not witnessed that there is a consumer trust issue. This year, the use of real estate agents nationally for a transaction is the highest percentage it has been in years. To be a great real estate agent can easily take a decade or more, because this is an “on-the-job-training” career, it never stops. This is my 49th year in the industry, and you never stop learning. Real estate is an extremely hard business, with an enormous failure rate. Hard work and longevity are the key for a great career.
Barrett: In 2026, consumer trust will be built through scale and proven performance. We are already seeing a clear shift toward larger real estate teams and brokerages because homes no longer sell themselves. Strong marketing, a dedicated salesforce and consistent visibility are essential. The days of a cousin or friend listing a home by putting a sign in the yard and uploading it to Zillow are gone. To earn confidence, agents need real track records, meaningful closing histories and internal support systems like transaction coordinators, marketing teams and legal resources. Real estate is becoming a structured business operation rather than an individual practice.
Zimmerman: This has been a question plaguing the industry for years, it’s not new to 2025, as confidence has been waning for the past decade. The future of the industry and its reputation are in the hands of the agents. Unfortunately the trade associations abandoned their efforts many years ago when it did not mandate a higher level of standards, including experience and training, as seen in many other industries. The fate of the industry is now in the hands of the agents and the brokerages that choose to align and hire based on professionalism, character, experience and service.
What is being done in the Phoenix area to assist first-time buyers? Is enough being done?
Murtaugh: I have heard this cry since I started my career in 1977. Here are the items you cannot control: cost of land, cost of engineering to develop a paper subdivision, cost to bring in utilities, street paving, post-tension foundation and concrete, plumbing and electrical, cost of construction, sales and title, HOA dues, cost of home insurance, cost of acquisition and development loans, and the amount of cash required to build a home, etc.
What we can do is attract below-market financing from the local or federal government and change the tax law to make it more affordable to build a subdivision: You are taxed on the profit of every home, even though you have millions of dollars of infrastructure costs.
Barrett: There needs to be more incentive for first-time homebuyers. They do currently benefit from more lenient qualifications and lower interest rates on primary homes below certain levels, but affordability is still a challenge. Adopting a 50-year mortgage could help by spreading payments over a longer period of time and lowering monthly costs, helping more renters transition into homeownership. If a 50-year mortgage were implemented, we would likely see an immediate increase in demand and pricing at the lower end of the market, though it could also create challenges for anyone who needs to sell in the short term.
How long will Phoenix be a hot relocation destination?
Murtaugh: As long as it is cold in many northern cities, with snow and rain, the Southwest will continue to grow. A recession can slow it down because there are fewer homes sold nationally, thus less money moving nationally.
Barrett: Phoenix will remain a strong relocation market as long as traffic stays manageable and the relative affordability of food, entertainment and discretionary spending holds compared to other large cities. The ability to get reservations at popular restaurants and local hot spots also continues to attract newcomers. We are seeing golf memberships at major country clubs now have long waitlists, discouraging some buyers from choosing neighborhoods like Silverleaf or Paradise Valley Country Club. But this shortage has led to the rise of supper clubs as an alternative social option.
Phoenix’s water situation is stable for now, but long-term concerns remain due to reliance on the Colorado River. Some consumers also factor in future climate risks, including extreme heat, which is viewed as a distant but real consideration.
Zimmerman: I think Phoenix has a strong five to 10 years ahead. We have planned well for growth and continue to have diversity in our industry. Aging baby boomers will continue to seek out our low-stress lifestyle, newer infrastructure and stable weather conditions. As the city grows more opportunities will appear, welcoming young entrepreneurs to make this their home.
How will the clear cooperation policy/private listings debates evolve in 2026?
Murtaugh: I think it will be tried by large companies, but this will limit the exposure of the home, and sellers want just the opposite, the greatest exposure. If there was a company only showing homes within their brokerage, as an agent at another firm, I would use this in my listing presentation as an advantage: Your home will be shown to everyone, not just a limited number. It benefits both the seller and the listing agent’s ability to sell to have the widest exposure for a consumer to find it on their internet search. This concept seems to lack common sense.
Barrett: I understand that the goal of clear cooperation is to reduce internal dual agency and create healthy competition, especially in areas where vulnerable groups such as senior citizens may be taken advantage of. Ensuring that no agent exploits a listing is important. However, at the very high end of the market, particularly when dealing with high-profile clients or celebrities, there are valid reasons to keep certain listings off the MLS. Privacy and security matter, and holding a property off-market can often create a premium for the seller.
That said, there should be a more uniform and transparent way to place these listings into the hands of top agents without using off-market status purely as a tactic to secure a dual-agency situation. Off-market inventory should serve the seller’s best interest, not the agent’s. Still, in select circumstances, keeping a listing private is a healthy and appropriate practice when it provides genuine protection for the seller.
Zimmerman: I would never bet against Robert Reffkin, Compass and the rights of the consumer. 2026 will bring consumer choice and impact of choice into the forefront. Buyers have a great deal of clarity and choice sellers will seek the same and will ultimately decide how to market their homes with their real estate professionals. The question is what will local MLSs and Zillow do when sellers take back their right to choose.